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Hafan

Annex: Our methodology

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The selection and evaluation process behind the four technologies we’ve explored in this report was guided by a robust, horizon-scanning and foresight process. This consisted of four consecutive phases that have been refined through our previous two reports: 

Phase 1: Horizon scanning 

This initial horizon-scanning phase focused mainly on identifying a longlist of emerging technologies for us to consider for inclusion in the report. This process relied on a so-called ‘scan-of-scans’ approach, in which we collated and contrasted technologies and emerging trends explored in recent foresight and technology publications. Our scan considered numerous high-quality sources from a wide range of countries and stakeholder communities to ensure a diversity of perspectives. This identified more than 50 possible technologies. 

Phase 2: Prioritisation 

In the second phase, we narrowed this longlist of technologies to the final four priority topics. This shortlisting involved rigorous evaluation and stress testing in which we scored potential technologies on several qualitative and quantitative indicators.

These indicators aimed to show: 

  • the magnitude and novelty of the possible privacy risks associated with an emerging technology (with an emphasis on harms disproportionately affecting those groups most at risk of harm, and the potential processing of special category information); 
  • the expected maturity and market penetration of an emerging technology over the next two to seven years; 
  • the degree and pace of innovation driving an emerging technology’s development (with a preference for technologies that have undergone significant change over the past 18 months across a range of sectors).  

Phase 3: Evaluation  

During the third phase, we explored each of the four priority topics in more depth, and stress-tested conclusions about possible future privacy and data protection considerations with external experts. 

Phase 4: Scenario-building 

The fourth and final phase explored the possible trajectories our priority technologies may follow in the years ahead. We developed scenarios that aimed to shed further light on the privacy and data protection implications of these different possible futures. We carried out scenario-building exercises not just to map the most direct emerging effects and use cases of a technology, but also the more speculative second-order effects they may generate (“don’t predict the car, but the traffic jam”). Each of the subject-specific chapters includes an example box describing what people’s day-to-day interactions with a new technology might look like in the future.